The Burr in the Burgh

How do you know whether God is pleased with you or displeased with you?

A while back, I wrote several posts critical of Rick Warren and his book (which shall not be named) for which I received a bit of criticism myself. Most of it was incoherent. The one type of comment, however, that struck me was when people said that Warren's book is obviously blessed by God because it is so huge a bestseller. This was usually followed by the accusation that the only reason I would criticize him is because I am jealous of his success and should write my own book, blah, blah, blah.

So what do you think? Do you really believe that earthly or material success is a sign of God's pleasure? Is earthly or material defeat a sign of His displeasure?

And the related question every person must answer is: How do you know whether you are in God's good favor or not?